Jeff Bezos hopes for the new Blue Origin rocket for his life. He flies 15 times, but he won't have a pilot and he probably won't have a boat.
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Jeff Bezos is risking his life to prove that
Blue Origin can fly safely through space.
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About 1% of US airlines have crashed.
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But the New Shepard rocket looks relatively
safe, given its flying history and short hauling experience.
Jeff Bezos, his brother Mark, and two unnamed people - at least one millionaire - are about to put their lives in the hands of Blue Origin rocket engineers.
Bezos, who founded the company in 2000, announced on Monday that
he and his brother would be the first riders on its New Shepherd rock, and the
man who would be nominated for the third seat.
The unnamed winner of the auction sold $ 28 million on Saturday to continue the tour. (Funding will go to Blue Origin, Club for the Future.) A fourth person will also join.
The group will tie in a capsule on top of a five-story rocket from July 20
"Bezos is dangerous," John Logsdon, founder of the George Washington University Space Policy Institute and a former member of NASA's Advisory Council, told Insider. "You really understand that there are risks involved, and you probably have a good guarantee of how dangerous it is."
For all of us - who have no access to Blue Origin rocket launches or risk statistics - it's hard to say how dangerous Bezos is. The company did not respond to a number of requests for comment on the matter. But there are a few important factors that provide clues.
New Shepard has flown successfully before - 15 times - but has never had people on board. The rocket has a good flight record, and it features an emergency system that can move the passenger capsule away from a failed rocket. Also, the entire trip is only 11 minutes long.
At the same time, however, Bezos will fly without a pilot, and perhaps without a boat. And no matter how safe New Shepard is, flying in space is always dangerous. About 1% of US airlines have crashed in a fatal crash, according to an analysis published earlier this year.
"That's very high. It's almost 10,000 times more dangerous than a commercial airliner," George Nield, author of the report, told Insider. Nield was previously the joint director of the Federal Aviation Administration and heads its Office of Commercial Aviation.
"In order to learn how to make this safer, more reliable, and less expensive, many people believe we need to continue to gain knowledge by having more and more flights," he added.
"Obviously [Bezos] has decided that having millions of people live and work in space is something he strongly believes in, and he wants to do his part to help that happen in a small way."
Skimming the very edge of space lowers the risk
If all goes according to plan on the day of Bezos' flight, here's what it will look like: The New Shepard rocket will launch its engines, spewing flames and smoke on the plains of West Texas.
As it shouts through space, the
gravitational pull and gravity of the Earth - which will sound three times stronger
than usual - will bind the Bezos brothers and their guests to their seats.
After three minutes, the rocket should separate from the capsule and return to Earth. Riders will feel weightless as they clear the space limit.
Bezos and his friends will only have three minutes in space. At that moment, they are able to unwrap and float around the cabinet, drifting from one window to another to enjoy the views of the Earth on one side of the spacecraft and the darkness of space on the other.
As gravity catches up again and the spacecraft begins to return to
Earth, Bezos and his crew will cling to the depths with great speed. They may
feel as if they are struggling to break free from three parachute balloons.
Parachutes have to carry the capsule to a pleasant place in the Texas desert, where a group of paramedics is waiting.
This type of plane is called suborbital because the capsule will not enter orbit in the earth. Blue Origin designed and built New Shepard specifically to carry the highest paying customers on the edge of space.
The
rocket is very small, and its engines do not have enough depth, to press it
around.
But keeping the plane short and suborbital comes with pluses: the chances of something going wrong are slim, and the car is easy to control because its engines are smaller and the rocket is moving slower than it would have to reach orbit.
If the Bezos flight goes well, the new launch system could look very attractive to future space visitors.
New Shepard is well tested and has an emergency evacuation plan
The most biting parts of the spacecraft are likely to be where the engines burn the liftoff, where the rocket separates from the capsule, and where the parachute sends.
"You have a machine that works well on a rocket engine that
can break, split, and do bad things," Logandon said.
New Shepard has used all of these functions many times before - not just for riders. Fly 15 times since 2015, three successful tests of its emergency escape plan, which could put a capsule away from a failed rocket.
When a parachute fails to operate, the capsule is designed to power its downward engine to help it stay safe. If the two keys fail, the melting “sloping” section below the pill should take effect on arrival.
"The capsule is the most efficient and secure spaceflight system, we think, ever designed or flown," said Gary Lai, executive director of New Shepard's design, in a Blue Origin security video, posted online in April. "In most cases, you have a backup plan."
Logsdon described the New Shepard testing process as "very complete" and "slow-moving." He pointed out that the first Space Shuttle flight was carrying people.
"Compared to the Space Shuttle Program, this is a very risky job," Logandon said.
Flying without spacesuits could add risk, but it may be safer if
someone vomits
Since the Challenger disaster in 1986 - when the Space Shuttle
split in half when it was launched, killing all seven members of the team - all
NASA astronauts are wearing pressure boat skirts to launch and land.
Spacesuits would not save those entering the Challenger, but they
could save lives if the space capsule senses a leak in the house but remains
unchanged.
The Blue Origin website, however, suggests that New Shepard riders will only wear a jumpsuit - not a boat and shelter. According to CNN, there are oxygen masks in the capsule, such as a plane, in case the cabinet is stressed. The company has not yet announced what Bezos or his friends will be wearing, however.
Both Nield and Logandon said the chance of a cab leak was very slim. So the decision to wear a spacesuit or not depends largely on the composition of the capsule. If it has thick skin especially with sturdy windows, and if its systems can carry distractions and technical errors without endangering passengers, flying outside the boat can be safe.
When it comes to flying tourists, it might be best to skip the cruise ship, as the first flights usually drop during the launch or landing arrival.
"Especially if you are not a trained and experienced astronaut, wearing a skin-tight speaker can be dangerous if you get sick," Nield said.
If you are not trained enough to use a spacesuit, you can squeeze
it yourself.
A fully automated flight with no pilots isn't necessarily a safety issue
New Shepard operates its flights independently.
"Its design doesn't allow anyone to make a lot of flights," Logandon said.
That’s not a bigger risk than a rocket that requires a pilot, as
long as the passengers are well-trained in what to do in an emergency.
However, this fully automated startup program is new, and many things can go wrong during early flights. Rocket failure can often be traced back to minor errors in all hardware and software types. Rocket science, after all.
"Until we get more information as we've had millions of flying planes over the years, then there will be some learning involved.
And
we'll find a surprise along the way. And there will be more accidents or
incidents in the years to come," Nield said. "With cars and boats and
planes and trains, people die every year. And flying in space will not be
different when it comes to that."